YEAR OF THE PIG TAKES A POSITIVE TURN
猪肉价格趋稳

The stench filling the air outside the Good Breeding pig farm in an otherwise bucolic mid-autumn day on Beijing's rural outskirts is the best news Li Yongqiang has had for nearly a year.
在一个本应有着田园诗般意境的秋日里，北京郊区的好饲养(Good Breeding)养猪场散发着扑鼻的臭气，而这是李永强（音译）近一年来最大的好消息了。

After cutting production in 2006 because of rising feed costs and low pork prices, Mr Li late last year lost another one-sixth of his pigs in an outbreak of the deadly “blue ear” disease.
在2006年因饲料价格不断上涨和猪肉价格低迷而减产后，去年底，致命的“蓝耳”病爆发，又使李永强的猪场损失了六分之一的牲畜。

Mr Li's problems were replicated on tens of thousands of small farms throughout China, causing a national shortage of pork and other staple foods and pushing inflation to an 11-year high of 6.5 per cent in August.
李永强的问题也出现在了中国各地成千上万家小农场，导致一场全国性的猪肉及其它主要食品短缺，使得8月份的通胀率升至6.5%的11年高点。

“But right now, I am increasing production,” Mr Li tells visitors. “[Premier] Wen Jiabao has encouraged us to raise more pigs.”
李永强对来访者讲：“但现在，我在提高产量。温家宝总理鼓励我们养更多的猪。”

Once solely a domestic concern, China's commanding role in the global economy, as an exporter of finished goods, a consumer of farm products and a buyer of US debt, makes its inflation a potentially global issue. And when it comes to China's inflation, the big story this year has been the soaring price of pork, one of China's staple meats.
这曾经只是一个国内问题，但中国作为成品出口国、农产品消费大国及美国债券购买方，在全球经济中占据着重要地位，因而，中国的通胀可能会成为一个全球问题。谈到中国通胀的时候，猪肉价格飞涨一直是今年的一个重大话题，猪肉是中国主要的食用肉类。

But there are now signs that the rules of supply and demand are beginning to work in the market for Chinese pigs.
但有迹象表明，供需规律正开始在中国的猪肉市场中发挥作用。

From an annualised output of 3,000 pigs last year, Mr Li is aiming for 4,700 in 2007. With a breeding cycle at about 170 days, he will soon be sending fattened pigs off to a market that is still offering near-record prices.
2007年，李永强计划将生猪年产量从去年的3000头提高到4700头。猪的养殖周期约为170天，所以他将能够很快地把养肥的猪送往市场，目前的猪肉价格则仍接近历史最高水平。

Mr Li calls himself a “small potato” in a Chinese market that raises and slaughters about 500m pigs a year. But if the latest figures from Beijing are right, the slow but perceptible turnround in the fortunes of Mr Li reflect a tentative national trend, of more pigs coming to market and the start of a decline in prices.
中国市场每年宰杀5亿头猪，李永强称自己只是个“小角色”。但如果中国政府最新数据准确的话，李永强的“财运”所发生的缓慢但可以察觉的转变，反映出一种初步的全国趋势——随着更多的猪上市，猪肉价格开始下降。#p#分页标题#e#

According to China's chief economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, the cost of pork in supermarkets has fallen for two weeks in succession. Outside the pig farms, the other barometer being watched by the central government is the grain harvest in the northern autumn. The signs at the moment are that it will be good.
根据中国政府主要经济计划部门国家发改委(National Development and Reform Commission)的数据，超市的猪肉价格已连续两周下降。除了养猪场，中央政府关注的另外一个晴雨表就是北方秋季的粮食收成。目前的迹象显示，今年的收成不错。

“If the grain distribution system works smoothly, and assuming limited pass-through of agricultural price increases to other products, CPI [consumer price index] inflation should average in the range of 6-6.5 per cent in September, and then 5-5.5 per cent in December,” says Jun Ma, a Deutsche Bank economist in Hong Kong.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻香港经济学家马骏(Jun Ma)表示：“如果粮食分销系统运转顺畅，同时假定农产品价格上涨没有过多地传递到其它产品上，9月份消费者价格指数(CPI)通胀应平均在6%-6.5%之间，12月份应该在5%-5.5%之间。”

Mr Ma believes that inflation should then fall to about 3.5 per cent in 2008, a result that would delight the government, as it is below the current one-year benchmark deposit rate of 3.87 per cent. The threat of persistent negative real interest rates scares Beijing, as it could propel depositors to empty their bank accounts and plough their cash into an already frothy stock market.
马骏相信，通胀会在2008年降至3.5%左右，这将令政府满意，因为它低于目前的一年期基准存款利率3.87%。长时间的负实际利率令中国政府感到恐惧，因为这可能驱使储蓄者清空自己的银行账户，并将所有现金投入一个已存在泡沫的股市。

There are other signs of a growing pig population, including an increase in the past two months of already high feed prices. On Mr Li's farm, for example, the cost of a bag of feed has gone up by 30 per cent since August.
其它迹象也表明，猪的养殖数量在不断上升，其中包括本已高昂的饲料价格在过去两个月再度上涨。以李永强的养猪场为例，8月以来，一袋饲料的价格上涨了30%。

But there are also questions over whether the impact will be lasting.
但对于此种效果能否持续，还存在着一些疑问。

According to one industry analyst, who asked not be named, the recent fall in pork prices may have been due to supply factors peculiar to the Chinese market and mean there is unlikely to be any significant fall in pork prices until early next year. “Some farmers need to pay cash for their children's education fees in September, so they kill pigs early during this season,”?the analyst said.
一位不愿透露姓名的行业分析人士称，中国市场特有的供应因素，可能是近期猪肉价格下降的原因所在，而这意味着，在明年初之前，猪肉价格不会再出现任何大幅下降。这位分析人士表示：“9月份，一些农民需要为孩子交学费，所以他们提前杀猪。”

For all the price rises, Mr Li still speaks in the resigned tones of a long-time farmer who believes the real benefits of his labour are always reaped by others. “The price they give to us is low. And the price that is given to the other businesses is high. The government and the farmers cannot control things. Only the middle-men can.”#p#分页标题#e#
尽管价格上涨，李永强还是那种老庄稼人听天由命的口气，认为自己的劳动成果总是被别人摘走。“他们给我们的价格很低。而卖给其它企业的价格很高。政府和农民控制不了。只有那些中间人可以做到。”

He also worries about the impact of the recent ups and downs. “This is the biggest fluctuation I have seen in 20 years.” he says. “Many farmers may not want to raise pigs in the future.”
他还担心近来市场波动的影响。他表示：“这是20年来我见过最大的起伏。今后，很多农民可能不想再养猪了。”