How we perceive the future of our Earth may depend on an individual's view of nature and on their own human nature.

我们对地球未来的认知可能依赖于个体对自然的观点以及个体自身的人文观点。

Global Warming Beliefs

Here's one of the confusing issues regarding global warming: After all the data we've collected so far how can we still have such wide variety in outlooks for our future?

Well Mark Maslin, director of the Environment Institute at the University College London and his colleague John Adams proposed one theory.

They believe that human opinion can be explained by how we respond to risk and uncertainty.

In reference to global warming beliefs, they combine four possible myths of nature with four myths of human nature. Myth is their term-you can also think of them as belief or opinion.

Here they are:

1） Nature is benign: Earth is predictable and robust, able to withstand or bounce back from any damage. This view corresponds with what they call individualists, entrepreneurial types who don't necessarily believe in control or intervention from others. Maslin uses the example of self-made oil barons.

2） Nature is ephemeral: Earth is fragile and it is in danger of collapse. And this view is held by egalitarians, people who have strong democratic group loyalties but do not respect externally imposed rules. Radical environmentalists might fall into this category.

3） Nature is tolerant: Earth can handle some changes, but major excesses will send it reeling. This is a view held by hierarchists, people who know their place, and adhere to strong social structures. Scientists or soldiers might be examples.

4） Nature is capricious: Earth's reactions are so unpredictable that we cannot predict nor accurately plan our future. This is the view of fatalists, those who feel they have little control over their lives.

From this framework, Maslin says we can tell which person is likely to believe which view of nature. And this is one way to look at why there are so many responses to the threat of global warming, despite us all having access to the same information.

对全球变暖的不同观点

本期涉及到对全球变暖的各种不同观点：到目前为止，在我们收集到了所有的信息后，我们为什么仍然对我们地球的未来持如此不同的观点？

伦敦大学学院环境研究所（Environment Institute at the University College London）的主任Mark Maslin和他的同事John Adams提出了一种理论。

他们认为，人们的观点可以用我们如何对风险和不确定做出反应来解释。

就全球变暖的观点来看，他们把自然的4种"神话"和人类的四种"神话"结合起来。"神话"是他们用到的术语---你也可以把它们认为是信仰或者观点。

它们分别如下：

1）自然是友好的：地球可以预测并且坚固，能抵抗任何破坏或者从破坏中恢复过来。这种观点对应于他们所称为的"个人主义者",他们是一类富于创造的人，不相信别人的控制或者干涉。Maslin以白手起家的石油大亨作为这类人的例子。

2）自然是短暂的：地球很脆弱，而且处于崩溃的危险中。平等主义者持有这种观点。平等主义者具有强烈的民主集体忠诚，但是不遵从外加的统治。极端环保主义者可能归属于这一类。

3）自然具有耐受性：地球能应对一些变化，但是过度的改变将使地球难以承受。等级主义者持这种观点。等级主义者知道他们在社会上的位置，能遵从森严的社会结构。科学家或者士兵可能属于这类人。

4）自然不可捉摸：地球的反应如此不可预测，因此我们既不能预测也不能准确地筹划我们的未来。这是宿命论者的观点。宿命论者认为他们对生活几乎没有控制力。

根据这种理论框架，Maslin说我们能说出哪类人很可能持有哪类自然观点。这是一种方法来解释为什么尽管我们所获得的信息是一样的，而我们对全球变暖的威胁会有如此多的反应。

Vocabulary:

Perceive:认知；感知

Individual:个体的；个人的

Confuse: 混淆的；混乱的

Variety: 变化

Propose: 提议

Uncertainty: 不确定

Myth: 神话

Benign: 有好的

Predictable: 可预测的

Robust: 强劲的；坚固的

Withstand: 抵抗

Individualist: 个人主义者

Entrepreneurial: 创业的

Intervention: 干涉

Baron: 大亨

Ephemeral: 短暂的

Fragile: 脆弱的

Collapse: 坍塌；崩溃

Egalitarian: 平等主义者

Category: 类别

Tolerant: 宽容的；能在困难条件下生存的

Excess: 过度

Reel: 感到震惊；仿佛天旋地转

Hierarchist: 等级主义者

Capricious: 变幻莫测的；

Accurately: 精确地

Fatalist: 宿命论者

Have access to: 有机会、权利