An ancient smile may predict a modern divorce

A GRIM expression in a yearbook photo or family snapshot could mean more than just a passing bad mood. It could also signal that the subject is more likely to get divorced than someone with a big smile for the camera. Matthew Hertenstein and his colleagues at DePauw University in Greencastle, Indiana asked old boys and girls of the university to answer questions about their current sexual relationships and whether they had ever been divorced. The team then looked up pictures of their volunteers in the university’s yearbooks and graded the degree of their smiles. The less a person smiled, it turned out, the more likely he or she was to have been divorced over the course of a lifetime.

This research is a dramatic example of how “thin slices” of information can predict important aspects of people’s personalities. In past studies, researchers have shown that with very limited information—less than half a minute of interaction, the viewing of a video clip or just a look at a photograph—people can make accurate predictions about others’ sexual orientation, socioeconomic status, teaching ability and personality.

Dr Hertenstein was following up research which had shown that the women who smiled most in their college photos were most likely to be married by the age of 27, among other things. He wanted to see if the same held, over the longer term, for divorce. His study, to be published in Motivation & Emotion, looked at three groups. The first, of 306 people, came from alumni of the psychology department. The second group, of 349, was recruited from general alumni. The third, of 55 people, was recruited from the town. (In the last case, people were asked to send in photos of themselves, but were not told that the study was about smiling.) The researchers rated the photos of the subjects on a scale of two to ten. They also asked their volunteers various questions, including whether they had ever been divorced.

The relationship between smiling and divorce also held up among townspeople, even though many sent photographs of themselves as children. Facial expression predicted divorce even when the smile or frown was on a ten-year-old’s face. A photograph that records a split second from a lifetime is a very thin slice indeed. How could it predict a divorce decades in the future?

The researchers suggest that the smiles are accurate indicators of personality. The results should not be overstretched. The never-divorced had their smiles rated on average at 5.9, 5.9 and 5.2 out of 10 in each of the three groups, while the divorced scored 5, 5.3 and 4.4. That is not a huge difference, but it is statistically significant. On the other hand, comparing only the lowest-scoring people with the highest-scoring, the least-smiling were three times more likely than the biggest smilers to divorce.

Until the findings are replicated it is probably too early to choose a spouse based on a facial expression in a photo. On the other hand, it would not hurt to smile for the camera yourself.

一张老照片上的表情也许可以预测最近的离婚

年鉴上照片上或者家庭合影上一个难看的表情也许不仅仅代表了一时的心情不爽。黑着脸照相的人也许比照片上满脸笑容的人更容易在将来离婚。就职于印第安那州DePauw 大学的Matthew Hertenstein和他的同事找来了学校的一帮男生女生做了一项研究。参与者会被问到一些问题，包括最近的性生活状态以及是否有过离婚史。研究人员随后找来了这帮被调查学生往年的年鉴照片，然后对老照片上的表情按照笑容的灿烂程度打分。结果显示，一个人照片上的笑容分越低，在以后的人生中离婚的几率也越高。

研究结果很有意思的表明了从照片中的信息可以看出一个人的性格。在以往的研究中，研究人员发现，仅仅需要很少量的信息片断，例如双方不到30秒的交谈，看一个对方的视频片段，或者仅仅是看一看这个人的照片，都可以判断出对方的性取向，社会地位，经济状况，讲说能力和个性。

Hertenstein博士在随后的研究中，发现在学校的照片中笑得比较灿烂的女生最有可能在27岁结婚。他同时想知道照片是否能对其他的事情做出类似的预测，例如离婚。他在《动机与情感》杂志上发表一篇研究报告。报告对三组人群做了研究。第一组是从心理学系校友录中找来的306名毕业生，第二组是在其他专业的349名毕业生，第三组是在镇上找来的55个居民。（最后一组的居民被要求带来自己的照片，但并未告之要研究他们的笑容。）研究人员对照片上的笑容按2-10分打分。同时要问被调查者一些问题，还是关于他们是否离婚之类。

笑容和离婚之间存在的微妙关系同样也存在与镇上的居民之间，尽管很多人送来的都是他们小时候的照片。甚至从10岁时照片上的笑容或者是皱的一个眉头都能够预计一个人的离婚。然而一张照片上记录的只是一个人一生中短短的一瞬间，薄薄的一张照片怎么能预计十年后的一次离婚呢 ？

研究认为，笑容是衡量一个人性格的精确指标，当然这样的研究结果也不能被过分夸大。在三组研究中，从来未离过婚的人笑容得分分别为5.9，5.9和5.2，然而离婚者的得分为5，5.3和 4.4。这并不是很大的差距，但是从统计学的角度来讲却有很明显的不同。另一方面看，仅仅比较最低得分组和最高得分组，笑容最少的人离婚的几率是笑容多的人的三倍之多。

当然，仅仅凭笑容来选择配偶还是太早了，但是在照相的时候多露出点笑容总不是件坏事。