In recent years, a small army of happiness gurus has lined up to proclaim the ills of modern society, and its failure to make us feel better. We have more money, say some, but family life has eroded. We live longer, but crime has risen. Some have even blamed affluence itself, arguing that the dizzying range of lifestyle options that we now confront frustrates the pursuit of happiness.

Yet contrary to the assertions of pessimists, newly released data, recently published in an article with colleagues from Jacobs University Bremen and the University of Michigan, shows that today's world is a happier one*. From 1981 to the present, more than 350,000 people from 90 countries were asked about their happiness and their satisfaction with life as a whole. Among the 52 countries for which at least a decade of data is available, reported well-being rose in 40 cases, and fell in only 12. The average percentage of people who said they were “very happy” increased by almost seven points.

How is it that the world is getting happier? In the words of Thucydides, the secret of happiness is freedom. In each survey respondents were also asked to rate their sense of free choice in life. In all but three countries where perceived freedom rose, subjective well-being rose also. A chart, produced by the authors, shows how these increases in free choice and subjective well-being are strikingly related.

The world in which we live today is unquestionably a free one. For the first time in history, most of the world is governed democratically, the rights of women and minorities are widely acknowledged, and people, ideas and investment can cross borders. Since the study began in 1981, dozens of middle-income countries have democratised, relieving many from fear of repression: every country making a transition from authoritarian rule to democracy shows a rising sense of free choice. In addition, there has been a sharp rise in the acceptance of gender equality and alternative lifestyles. Countries where this revolution has been most pronounced, such as Canada and Sweden, continue to show rising well-being.

Arguably, no region has experienced this transformation as rapidly as eastern Europe. In the space of two decades, several countries that were members of the Soviet bloc have become members of the European Union, with new freedoms to travel, work and live as never before imaginable. Not only has the proportion claiming to be “very happy” risen in every country except Serbia and Belarus, but this trend has been wholly driven by the younger generation. Among eastern Europeans aged 15-24, the proportion saying they were “very happy” was 9 per cent at the start of the 1990s, roughly the same as in other age groups. By 2006, this proportion had more than doubled, and steady rises were also evident among those in their 30s and 40s. Country after country in the study – Albania, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine – exhibits this trend.Belarus stands out as an exception in changes in happiness by age (the young are still as miserable as in 1990, and the elderly only a little better off).

So if the world is becoming happier, what are the implications? First, that the expansion of political and social freedoms over the past quarter of a century is vindicated. The open world in which we live is a fundamentally happier one. This may not surprise those who have argued in favour of a liberal global order. It will undoubtedly cause puzzlement and consternation among those who yearn for the false certainties of an earlier era.

Second, the results may engender caution towards attempts to engineer happiness through public policy. The happy countries include social democracies such as Sweden and Denmark, and more laisser faire economies such as Australia and the US. What they have in common are not their policies but institutions: democracy, rule of law and social tolerance. People are largely capable of engineering their own happiness when given the means to do so.

Third, the link from free choice to rising happiness suggests that the appropriate benchmark of develop-ment is not income per capita, but individual freedoms and capabilities. This is the human development perspective associated with Amartya Sen, the Nobel laureate. While income and well-being are closely correlated at early stages of development, once the threat of starvation recedes, social and political freedom appears to be as important.

Though the past 25 years have brought a happier world, there is no certainty that the next 25 will continue to do so. Many low and middle-income countries have experienced exceptionally high rates of growth, ranging from 4 to 11 per cent, while richer countries have undergone falling work hours and social liberation. There is no guarantee that either will persist indefinitely.

Meanwhile democratisation is a one-shot occurrence, and the collapse of communism is in the past. Today, there are as many countries that appear to be sliding into soft authoritarianism and state failure as there are countries that are becoming consolidated democratic cultures, while the future of the global economic order is itself in jeopardy. It would be a huge irony if the benefits of liberal institutions for human happiness were to become evident precisely at the moment when those gains are most at risk.

近年来，一小批倡导幸福的大师们接二连三地揭露现代社会的痼疾，指责现代社会没能让人们感觉生活得更好。一些人表示，我们有了更多的钱，但家庭生活却不及从前。我们的寿命更长了，但犯罪行为有所增加。一些人甚至谴责富裕本身，他们辩称，如今我们在生活方式上面对着令人眼花缭乱的选择，这妨碍了我们对幸福的追求。

然而，与悲观主义者的主张相反，不来梅雅各布大学(Jacobs University Bremen)和密歇根大学(University of Michigan) 最近发表的一篇论文中的新数据显示，当今的世界幸福程度更高*。从1981年到现在，来自90个国家的逾35万人被问及其幸福感及对生活总体的满意度。在至少拥有10年数据的52个国家中，40个国家显示幸福感上升，而只有12个国家幸福感下降。称自己“非常幸福”的平均人数增加了近7%。

世界是如何变得更幸福的呢？按照希腊历史学家修西得底斯(Thucydides)的话说，快乐的秘决在于自由。每一份调查中，也要求被调查者对其生活中自由选择方面的感觉进行评定。除了3个国家以外，其它所有认为自由感上升的国家，主观幸福感也增强了。作者设计的图表表明，自由选择增多与主观幸福感增强之间存在着惊人的相关性。

我们今天生活的世界无疑是一个自由的世界。有史以来第一次，世界上大多数国家都施行民主体制，女性和少数民族的权益得到了广泛认同，人才、理年和投资可以跨境流动。自1981年该研究启动以来，许多中等收入水平的国家都已经实现了民主化，从而消除了许多人对于受到镇压的畏惧：所有从独裁统治转向民主体制的国家，自由选择的感觉都不断增强。此外，对于性别平等和另类生活方式的认同程度也有了明显提升。在此种革命最引人瞩目的国家，如加拿大和瑞典，幸福感都在持续攀升。

诚然，东欧地区经历了最为迅速的变革。在短短20年的时间里，一些曾经是前苏联阵营成员的国家，如今已变成了欧盟(EU)成员国，拥有了旅行、工作、生活等方面的新自由，这在以往是不可想象的。除塞尔维亚和白俄罗斯以外，不仅所有国家宣称“很快乐”者的比例上升，而且这种趋势总体上受到了年轻一代的推动。90年代初，在15至24岁的东欧人中，称自己“很快乐”的人的比例为9%，与其它年龄段的比例大致相同。到2006年，这一比例已经上升了一倍以上，同时在30和40岁年龄段中，这一比例也明显出现了稳定增长。此项研究中的一个又一个国家——阿尔巴尼亚、保加利亚、波斯尼亚、克罗地亚、捷克共和国、立陶宛、摩尔多瓦、罗马尼亚、俄罗斯、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚、乌克兰——都表现出了这种趋势。在按照年龄段分类的幸福感变化方面，白俄罗斯的表现与众不同（该国年轻人仍像1990年一样痛苦，而年长一些的人则只是略有改善）。

那么，如果世界变得更加幸福，这暗示了什么呢?首先，这证明过去25年间政治和社会自由的扩展是正确的。从本质上说，我们生活的这个开放世界更加幸福了。这可能不会令那些维护全球自由格局的人感到惊讶。但毋庸置疑，这会令那些渴望延续旧日错误的人们感到困惑和惊恐。

其次，这一结果可能会引发人们对于通过公共政策操纵幸福做法的戒备。幸福国家包括瑞典、丹麦等社会民主政体，以及澳大利亚和美国等自由主义经济体。它们的共同点不在于政策，而在于制度：民主、法治和社会宽容度。被赋予这些手段之后，人们很大程度上能够掌控自己的幸福。

第三，自由选择与不断增强的幸福感之间的相关性表明，衡量发展的恰当基准不是人均收入，而是个人自由和能力。这是与诺贝尔经济奖得主阿玛蒂亚•森(Amartya Sen)观点一致的人类发展观。尽管收入和幸福在发展初期阶段密切相关，但一旦饥饿的威胁减退，社会及政治自由似乎就显得同样重要。

虽然过去的25年已带给我们一个更加幸福的世界，但并不能确定今后25年这种状况还能持续下去。许多中低收入国家经济实现了异乎寻常的高增长（增长率从4%到11%不等），而较为富裕的国家工作时间不断减少，同时进行了社会自由化变革。谁也无法保证这两种情况会一直持续下去。

与此同时，民主化是一种一次性事件，而共产主义的崩溃已成为过去。而今，那些似乎要滑入软式独裁主义和政权失败的国家数量，与正成为稳固民主文化的国家一样多，而全球经济秩序的未来本身也处于危险之中。如果致力于人类幸福的自由制度的益处，恰恰在它们面临最大风险之际展现出来，这将是一个莫大的讽刺。