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$d$Ifa$kd,$$Ifl4   ֞d  5KRR t0  4 lalf4 $d$Ifa$-!! $d$Ifa$kd'.$$Ifl4   ֞d  5KRR t0  4 lalf4Gkd/$$Ifl4   r  5K  t0  4 lalf4 $d$Ifa$*,68:<@Bfhtvxz~08:<>FPRTVbdjlĽijĽijĽij㙊h-OJPJo(h-6CJOJPJQJo(h-CJOJPJo(h-h-H*OJQJo(h-CJOJQJ h-6H* h-6CJ h-CJo(h-6H*o(h-6CJo( h-o(h-CJOJQJo(h-6CJOJQJo(1*,6 $d$Ifa$68:B-!! $d$Ifa$kd0$$Ifl4   ֞d  5K`dRR t0  4 lalf4BNZfht $d$Ifa$tvx-!! $d$Ifa$kd"2$$Ifl4   ֞d  5KRR t0  4 lalf4 $d$Ifa$b-$ d$IfkdR3$$Ifl4   ֞d  5KRR t0  4 lalf4bdlssssss $d$Ifa$ $dxxa$ dx`d8`_kd4$$Ifl4    t0  4 lalf4 v(v,v8v:vfW0 (N) thl 23NSՋDeRgvthlQ_N22NSՋDeRgvthv T0 dkO r=s=3, T1=3.06, T2=-0.11,  EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3  1udf=(r-1)+(s-1)=(3-1)+(3-1)=4g4NLut

0.05 hf(W[gqre NmR?\ }N&T vY[rNvYϑ]_ N>fW0h~gNe]Rglv T0 N0NSvO:pSlaNy (N) NSvO:p 10;NOp NSSNmd*NSOSՋegv]_[Ջ~gvq_T ۏNekzQYtHe^ cؚNՋv|nx'`0Vdk NSyr+R(uN*NSO]_'YvRirՋ Y'YRirT}Q;Sf[ՋI{0dkY NSՋ~gvRg:N{O0 20;N:p NbNevk NS N_0RsQN*NSO]_TՋg]_'Y\vOo`N g͑ YvYV }Ջvk ؏ N_0RV }KNNN\O(uvOo`0Vdk NS(uV gN[v@\P'`0 (N) ^(uNS{lav 10YtV }0eg0*NSO NX[(WNN\O(u YgNSՋ-NYtV }0eg0*NSO gNN\O(u ُNNN\O(uHe^1\OR_eQ]y-N O]0OfW0vzvQSVS/f,gOՋ]'YN]1u^\(N:N2) OhvupOe^NO N cvN[V }v>fW'`01uNTV }[X͑q_T N>fW N_QۏLTV }4ls^vY͑k0dke Sv‰0WNh12-17-N bs^GWpe'Yv4ls^A30B30C2~TbgO4ls^~TA3B3C20 Ne͑ YckNՋ~gve]Rg vQ]/f1u zzR eg0Ov06q  zzR v^ Nzz [E N/f*g[vNN\O(u@b`Snc0ُy]eS+TՋ] _NS+TNN\O(u y:N!jW]0傤NN\O(u NX[(W (u!jW]0OՋ]/fSLvV }X[(WNN\O(u R!jW]O8Y'YՋ] gScv[V }v>fW'`0ُe Ջ]^Ǐ͑ YՋfW'` ~Fh N>fW RS\vQs^eTN1u^R+RTv^ {QTv^v]GWe ۏLFhNY͑k NcؚRgv|^Fh>fW fX[(WNN\O(u N NTv^ dkeSNMSe2ۏLFhNY͑k0,gOMSe1/ MSe2<1 MSe1NMSe2]_ N>fW Ee\]s^eTN1u^R+RTv^{QTv^v]GWeMSe sSMSe=( SSe1+ SSe2)/(dfe1+ dfe2)=(15.2012+315.6845)/(2+8)=33.09 v^(uTv^v]GWeMSeۏLFhNY͑k0 Fh~ghf wir(CQ }Me[gP[*sX_ g>fWq_T SY$N*NV }\O(u N>fWN*NUSMO~]_g>fW0 30 AV }T4ls^s^GWpevY͑k h12-9 AV }T4ls^s^GWpeY͑kh(SSRl) USMOkg AV }s^GWpe EMBED Equation.3  EMBED Equation.3 -69.68 EMBED Equation.3 -73.62A381.2611.58**7.64*A273.623.94A169.68 V:N  EMBED Equation.3  1udfe=10Tk=2, 3, g_SSRfWbg>fW0WؚNA20A1A2NA1]_ N>fW0 dkOV!jW] N>fW SN:NV } NX[(W>fWvNN\O(u0S1uA0B0CV }vgO4ls^~TbgO4ls^~T0AV }vgO4ls^:NA3V:NB0CV }4ls^]_GW N>fW EeSN N4ls^0YB0CV } bOXؚ͑4ls^vB2SC2 R_gO4ls^~T:NA3B2C2 sSMeIII0(uϑ25KQ0ߘv4KQ0 !jW]>fW hfV }NN\O(u>fW R^ۏNekՋ NRgV }vNN\O(u0 N0V } gNN\O(uvckNNRg (W[Exvz-N geՋV }KNX[(WNN\O(u0[Ne[V };NHe^S[V }NN\O(uvckN dh4YT~gRgNMRbN~eu g N TY vQ[W,gv T0 0O12.80 gNyb̃ }vSuW{QW1uA0B0C 3ybR~b T g$N*N4ls^ d[A0B0C N*NV }v;NHeY ؏[ANB0BNCvNN\O(u0Ջ[cN*NckNՋeHhv^ۏL~gRg0 (N) (uckNh \Oh4Y 1uN,gՋ g3*N$N4ls^vV }T$N*NNN\O(u[ Ty1u^KNT:N3(2-1)+2(2-1)(2-1)=5 VdkS (uL8(27)eg[cՋeHh0 ckNhL8(27)-N gW,gRTNNRKNR W,gR1\/fTV }@b`SvR NNRR:N$NV }NN\O(u@b`SvR0S)R(uL8(27)NRNN\O(uRh(h12-31)eg[cTV }TNN\O(u0 h12-31 L8(27)NRNN\O(uRh RS12345671(1)3254762(2)167453(3)76544(4)1235(5)326(6)1 Yg\AV }>e(W,{1R BV }>e(W,{2R gh12-31Sw ,{1RN,{2RvNN\O(uR/f,{3R N/f\ANBvNN\O(uAB>e(W,{3R0ُ7h,{3R NQ[cvQ[V } NMQQs mBg 06qT\C>e(W,{4R gh12-31Sw BC^>e(W,{6R YO NR:NzzR YdkS_h4Y h12-320 h12-32 h4Y RS1234567V }ABABCzzBCzz (N) RQՋeHh 9hnch4Y \A0B0CTR[^vpeW[ 1 0 2 bcbTV }vwQSO4ls^ _QՋeHhRNh12-330 h12-33 ckNՋeHh Ջ S V  }1(A)2(B)3(C)11(A1)1(B1)1(C1)21(A1)1(B1)2(C2)31(A1)2(B2)1(C1)41(A1)2(B2)2(C2)52(A2)1(B1)1(C1)62(A2)1(B1)2(C2)72(A2)2(B2)1(C1)82(A2)2(B2)2(C2) ( N) ~gRg ch12-33@bRvՋeHhۏLՋ vQ~gh12-340 h-NTi0 EMBED Equation.3 {el TMR0dkO:NUSr‰KmfW B0CV }SBCNN\O(u N>fW0VNN\O(uAB>fW ^[ANBv4ls^~TۏLY͑k N QANBvgO4ls^~T0 30ANBT4ls^~TvY͑k HQ{QANBT4ls^~Tvs^GWpe A1B14ls^~Tvs^GWpe EMBED Equation.3 =(55+38)/2=46.50 A1B24ls^~Tvs^GWpe EMBED Equation.3 =(97+89)/2=93.00 A2B14ls^~Tvs^GWpe EMBED Equation.3 =(122+124)/2=123.00 A2B24ls^~Tvs^GWpe EMBED Equation.3 =(79+61)/2=70.00 RQA0BV }T4ls^~Ts^GWpeY͑kh h12-360 h12-36 A0BV }T4ls^~Ts^GWpeY͑kh(ql) 4ls^~Ts^GWpe EMBED Equation.3 -46.5 EMBED Equation.3 -70 EMBED Equation.3 -93A2B1123.0076.5*53*30A1B293.0046.5*23A2B270.0023.5A1B146.50 V:N  EMBED Equation.3  1udfe=2Nk=2, 3, 4, g4NLuq

fWONA2B2 A1B1A1B2>fWONA1B1 vQYO]_ N>fW0gO4ls^~T:NA2B10 NN NRgSw AV }SA2 BV }SB1 CV }SC1 R,g!kՋ~gvgO4ls^~T:NA2B1C10 la dkOVdfe=2 FhNY͑kvupOe^NO0:NNcؚhvupOe^ S\F<1vSSB0dfB SSBC0dfBCTv^0RSSe0dfe-N _Tv^v]GWe Q(uTv^]GWeۏLFhNY͑k0ُN]\OYu~[b0 ,{]N g (Wyf[xvz-N dNۏLc6RՋY ge_NۏLgxvz0gxvz/f[] gvN[ǏTye_ۏLN 6qT(u~vel[@b_pencۏLRg N ~bQvQ-Nvĉ_'`0OY N\uyTyS4lNDnrQc"}TRg[gyuu gHev2lĉ_0ceNSevhKbkTelI{01uNs:WgzNuN[E @bN[/fxvzT㉳Q[EvNy͑xvzel0 Te c6RՋvxvz __/f(WgxvzvW@x Nnx[vՋxvzvbg S_{(WvQc^^(uT~g_N0 :NNOgxvz]\O gvv0 gR0 gek0Wz)R_U\ _{NHQb[N*N~vgR0gR^SbN NQ*NQ[ (N) gxvzvvv NUONygxvz gfnxvvv sSǏgNNHN ㉳QNHN0OY [\ueP^rQvgvvv/fċ[[\ueP^4ls^\uyTyDngvvv/fN\uyTyvpeϑ0R^NTyyr_yr'`I{`Q0 Te gxvzvvv؏^勁zQ͑p N!kg^[;N6eƖ_vpenc meQRg :N;Nv㉳QcQv^vceTRl0 (N) gv[aNV 9hncgvvv nx[gv[a00W:STV Rng;`SOv T(V0eVT0W:SV0OY V]w[yTyDng g0W:S:NV]w g;`SOT[a:NhQwT^0Sv[y geN2000t^1g0R2000t^12g0 ( N) gvyv gyvvnx['}'}V~gvv0gyvnx[vcknxN&TvcsQ|0Rgv(ϑ0Vdk yv^=\ϑPhQ ͑vyv NocyvQ[wQSO0fnx N!jh$NS0^ c N Tvchz^NhfW'`hvthlQ_cQv7h,g+Tϑ{lQ_:N  EMBED Equation.3  12-9 _-Nn:N7h,g+Tϑ  EMBED Equation.3 :N1u^n-10$N>\is:N EMBED Equation.3 v4NLutfW'`h EMBED Equation.3 hlQ_cQ7h,g+Tϑ{lQ_:N  EMBED Equation.3  (12-10) _-Nn:N7h,g+Tϑ p:N;`SOv~vRpe q=1-p  EMBED Equation.3 :N$N>\is:N EMBED Equation.3 v4NLu EMBED Equation.3 

\is:N EMBED Equation.3 v4NLutfWvs^GWpe]fW'`09hncN_~ EMBED Equation.3 =2 kg Y\[Ջ[\uMbnBl \t0.05(")=1.96,  EMBED Equation.3 =2,  EMBED Equation.3 =1.5NeQ (12-12) _ _ n=1.96222/1.52H"7[ V:Nn<15 QNdf=7-1=6e t0.05=2.477NeQ (12-12) _ n=2.477222/1.52H"11[ QNn=11, df=11-1=10e t0.05=2.2NeQ (12-12) _ n=2.2222/1.52H"9[ QNn=9, df=8e t0.05=2.3NeQ(12-12) _ n=2.3222/1.52H"9[ n]3z[:N9 EeM[Ջ\9[Ջ[\uMbnՋBl0 (N) ^M[Ջ͑ Ypev0O [N:gR:N$N~vՋ n1=n2 S1u^M[thlQ_[Q  EMBED Equation.3  12-13 _-Nn:Nk~ՋRir4Ype sS͑ Ype  EMBED Equation.3 :Ndf=2(n-1)0$N>\is:N EMBED Equation.3 v4NLutfWvs^GWpe]fW'` k~\Y\4YՋ[\uMbnBl \t0.05(")=1.96  EMBED Equation.3 =2  EMBED Equation.3 =1.5NeQ (12-13) __ n=21.96222/1.52=13.66H"14 (4Y) Nn=14, df=2(14-1)=26vt0.05=2.056NeQ(12-9) _ n=22.056222/1.52=15.03H"15 (4Y) QNn=15, df=2(15-1)=28vt0.05=2.048NeQ (12-9) _ n=22.048222/1.52=14.91H"15 (4Y) n]3z[(W15 sS,g!kՋ$N~GW\154YՋ[\uMbnBl0 ( N) Y*NYtkՋ-N͑ Ypev0O S_ՋYtpeke"3e TYt͑ YpeS c]1u^Ǐdfee"12vSReg0O0V:NS_dfeǏ12e Fh-NvF6e ͑ YpeN^ N\N30 20:gUSMO~ Ndfe =(k-1) (n-1)e"12 _͑ Ypev0O{lQ_:N ne"12/(k-1)+1 12-15 1ulQ_(12-15)Sw k=3 Rne"7k=4 Rne"5& & 0FOS_Ytpek>7e ͑ YpeN^ N\N30 30bNe 傁Bldfe=(k-1) (k-2)e"12 R͑ Ype(dkeI{NYtpe)e"50 @bN :NNO]1u^ N\N12 R^ۏLYtpe(sS͑ Ype)e"5vbNeՋ sSۏL55N NvbNeՋ0S_ۏLYtpe:N304vbNeՋeS\33bNeՋ͑ Y6!k 44bNeՋ͑ Y2!k NOdfe=120 (V) $N*N~vRpekՋ-N7h,g+Tϑ0O $N7h,g+TϑvI{n1=n2=n nv{lQ_S1u$N*N7h,g~vRpe]_>fW'`huhlQ_c_  EMBED Equation.3  12-16 _-Nn:Nk~ՋvRir4Ype  EMBED Equation.3 :NTv^~vRpe 1u7h,g~vRpe{  EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3 :Ng0R]_>fWv~vRpe]\is:N EMBED Equation.3 v4NLu EMBED Equation.3 fW]_ Ջek~\cyY\S! ]w EMBED Equation.3 =2250 = 44%  EMBED Equation.3 =2850 = 56% R$N*N7h,g~vRpevTv^~vRpe:N  EMBED Equation.3 = (22+28) /50+50 = 0.50  EMBED Equation.3 =1-0.50=0.50 \ EMBED Equation.3 NeQ (12-16) _{_ n=21.9620.500.50/0.102 = 192 .08 EMBED Equation.3 193(S) sS(Wck_cyՋe k~\cy193S!eSnՋBl0 la (WM[Ջ0^M[ՋTY*NYtkՋ-N TNYtv N T͑ YasT@w TNYt[e(W N TvՋUSMO N0ՋN*NSO:NՋUSMO R TNYtv N T͑ Y/fc TNYt[e(W N T*NSO NNSO:NN*NՋUSMO R TNYtv N T͑ Y/fc TNYt[e(W N TSO N ُeYgkYtS[e(WN*NSO N N{ُRirvpeϑ gY\ [E NvS_NS[e(WN*NՋUSMO N S_N*N‰Km

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